I'm still shooting 50% as far as these playoff/play-in predictions go. The Heat, thanks largely to Max Strus, a player I more or less dissed just a couple of days ago, did manage to beat the Bulls, though the game basically went down to the wire. Meanwhile the Timberwolves, as expected, dominated the Thunder, with the latter not having any major bigmen in their lineup as far as I know.
So today, the actual Playoffs begin with three EC games and one out west. In fact one of those games is scheduled to start in 30 minutes as I'm writing this post. So I wanted to quickly jot down who I think will take the series that are beginning today. And as for the others, I will hopefully get to them tomorrow before they start also.
CELTICS (57-25) VS. HAWKS (41-41)
FAIR & SQUARE
I believe that Atlanta's starting five are just as talented as those of the Celtics, even if that talent is not as well balanced. Who's bench is superior is a matter of perspective. Or let me just say that one paper, these teams are more or less evenly matched, except of defensive, where I believe Boston would have the advantage.
But another advantage the Celtics have is their winning culture. The infamous Ime Udoka, who was heralded as some type of basketball guru last season, was forced out of his position, but Boston hasn't missed a beat. Meanwhile the Hawks fired Nate McMillan mid-season, and afterwards it felt like their situation went from bad to worse.
If the Hawks have now found a definitive strategy, i.e. the one they used against the Heat in play-ins with Young as the main scorer, Murray as the secondary and the embattled John Collins third, you know, it would help if they actually did have a strategy against Boston, because their perimeter defenders are likely going to give Trae + Dejounte some fits. But the thing is that their bench was also really hot against Miami, in a way that no one is realistically expecting them to replicate over an entire series against the Celtics.
WHAT WILL THE NBA DO?
I don't believe that the NBA bigwigs want the Hawks winning this series.
THE X-FACTOR
The x-factor, once again, is Robert Williams, because if he's not playing or is wobbled, Clint Capela, who on the low is a really-good C, is going to go crazy with rebounds and perhaps dunks also.
SIXERS (54-28) VS. NETS (45-37)
FAIR & SQUARE
The Nets are a good team who have gone through all types of adversity yet remained competitive, but the buck should stop here. I would say that perhaps throughout the past five seasons, no team has been as good as the Sixers. The reason they haven't made it to the Finals during that time, or at least in a couple of those instances, can be chalked up to bad luck, if you want to put it like that. But even if in case Joel Embiid, MVP he may be, is injured, they should still be able to handle the Nets.
WHAT WILL THE NBA DO?
I don't believe the NBA will go as far as to favor the Nets over the Sixers, but they may stretch the series out a bit.
THE X-FACTOR
Maybe I can put Cam Thomas here, but I don't know. He can explode for 40 points on any given day(s). But the thing is that he can do so, and the Nets will still lose.
KNICKS (47-35) VS. CAVS (51-31)
FAIR & SQUARE
Other analysts are predicting that this will be the most tightly-contested First Round series, but I have no hestitation picking the Cavs over the Knicks, because they have two things which NY doesn't - Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley. The former has proven himself as the most-prolific scorer in the NBA, even if he hasn't won the scoring title, and the latter I'm still predicting as the second coming of Kareem.
The only way I perceive the Knicks winning this series, especially with Julius Randle hobbled, is if the Cavs suffer a major injury or two. Then NYK's depth, which I believe is their greatest strength, will come to the forefront.
WHAT WILL THE NBA DO?
I personally don't see any reason why the NBA would want to interfere in this one. If the Knicks win, they're one of the most-popular teams in all of American sports. But the Cavs are more exciting to watch, with a bona fide superstar on their roster. So whoever advances, it'd be a win for the league.
THE X-FACTOR
The Knicks' bench are the x-factor in this series. It's clear that the one advantage New York does have over Cleveland is depth, and the Cavs' starting five can't play forever. So the likes of Quickley, Toppin, Fournier and them really need to step up. But that's contingent on Randle playing, because if not then they're depth will be significantly minimized.
KINGS (48-34) VS. WARRIORS (44-38)
FAIR & SQUARE
The Kings have been the Cinderella story of the 2022-23 season, and it'd be a shame to see them go in the First round. But the Warriors are the Warriors, and maybe some team besides the 2016 Cavs will figure out a way to beat them even if the Splash Bros. are healthy. But I don't that team will be Sacramento this year. Or let me put like this - if the Kings do manage to beat the Dubs, then they can truly be considered contenders.
WHAT WILL THE NBA DO?
I belive that the NBA favors Golden State, but I can't predict with confidence that, if necessary, they'd actually rig the series in their favor. The Dubs are gonna have to fall off eventually, and if the Kings are able to legitimately knock them out, I don't see why the powers that be would hate.
THE X-FACTOR
That would be Andrew Wiggins, of course. Teams are being fined all types of crazy money for quote/unquote 'tanking', but a star player resting for two or three months and then coming back right before the playoffs should raise eyebrows also.
CONCLUSION
I really like the Hawks, but it doesn't seem reasonable, given their struggles all season, that they'll now flip a switch and beat the Celtics, who are as consistent as they come. The Sixers shouldn't really have much of a problem with the Nets, and if the Cavs do against the Knicks, it would be because of their lack of depth. Also, it's quite telling that even though the Kings have homecourt advantage, they're considered underdogs by many against the Dubs.
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