2023 NBA Playoffs Ruminations (18th May)

DAMN, THE SIXERS GOT THEIR ASSES BUST

At the time James Harden was traded for Ben Simmons, I predicted that the Nets got the best of that deal if Simmons actually plays, which he sorta did, but also sorta didn't.  I didn't believe that Harden as a Sixer was going to work out for three reasons.  #1, he's known to be a chuck.  #2, he's past his prime, and #3, Harden also developed a reputation for not making too much of an effort on defense.

As for #1 and #2, I give it to Harden (and Doc Rivers) that the Beard was able to modify his game in Philly, becoming more of a passer and less of a chuck.  That's something that he wasn't able to effectively do in Brooklyn.

But as for number #3, that's a different story.  If a player does have injury issues, it's his defense that's going to suffer more than anything else anyway.  So when you with an already established lack of defensive effort in a player that's also dealing with injury issues, the result isn't likely to be pretty.  That's one of the reasons why the Sixers never should never given up Matisse Thybulle and why quality perimeter defenders, such as Simmons, are IMO invaluable in today's NBA.

AND SPEAKING OF BEN SIMMONS...

He seemed to get a kick out of his former team getting their asses bust.  Back in 2021, he was the scapegoat when the Sixers were eliminated from the playoffs.  So who's taking the blame this season?  This time around the team's two biggest stars, the Beard and freshly-minted MVP Joel Embiid - not Doc Rivers, the organization's scapegoat - are being blamed by pundits for the team losing.  Karma is a bitch, isn't it, Joel?  And if the Beard does leave in free agency, that means at the end of the day the Sixers got nothing or even took a lost in the Simmons trade.  Daryl Morey used to be sharp back in the days, but now I don't really know.

AND SPEAKING OF MVP...

I know I mentioned awhile back, I think around the start of the season, that Jayson Tatum should or could be in the MVP conversation, and he went out there and absolutely smoked Philly in Game 7.  I don't know why he never gets his flowers; maybe he's too pretty or some shit.  But my real theory is that the Celtics have been so good for long that people see them more as a team rather than being focused on an individual star.  But if I were putting together a squad, I would take Tatum over Embiid, even though Joel plays a more-important position.

THE LAKERS CAN ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE FINALS?

Russell Westbrook is one of my favorite players, but in hindsight I have to say that the Lakers trading him, as well as other moves they made around the same time, at least gives them options, which is something they didn't really have before.  The way they started Game 1 with AD + Lebron being backed by Schroder + Russell + Reaves was like an insult to the Nuggets' offense, and they paid the price.  But again, they have options, and I perceive something like maybe Hachimura + Walker IV taking the place of Schroder and Russell in the starting lineup, maybe, if the Lakers also have enough trust in those other guys they haven't been playing of late.  But at the beginning of this season, I never imagined that by the end I'd be compelled to say that LAL is deeper than even Denver, though it kinda sucks that the Lakers actually have to rely on the oftentimes-nonexistent defense of AD + Lebron given the positions they play.

SPURS WIN THE WEMBANYAMA SWEEPSTAKES

I've been saying for months now that if the NBA gives the first pick to anyone, it should be the Spurs.  So now it's like they've truly received some justice for Kawhi forcing himself out some years ago.

I was recently peeping this old Mike Tyson interview when his manager, Cus D'Amato, who was old AF at the time, was saying that his desire to see Mike become a champion was what was keeping him alive.  And that's how I believe the relationship between Popovich and Wembanyama will be.  Gregg is an old master whose roster lacks the talent to compete for a championship.  But now he has been given this young prospect who, under the right leadership, is predicted to be a champion.  So it's like Popovich's NBA career has been given a second life.  It was sad watching him coach a team that had virtually no must-watchability.  And if you have to believe that if any head coach can bring out the full potential of Victor, it's him.

2023 NBA Playoff Predictions (Round 1, Part 1)

 I'm still shooting 50% as far as these playoff/play-in predictions go.  The Heat, thanks largely to Max Strus, a player I more or less dissed just a couple of days ago, did manage to beat the Bulls, though the game basically went down to the wire.  Meanwhile the Timberwolves, as expected, dominated the Thunder, with the latter not having any major bigmen in their lineup as far as I know.

So today, the actual Playoffs begin with three EC games and one out west.  In fact one of those games is scheduled to start in 30 minutes as I'm writing this post.  So I wanted to quickly jot down who I think will take the series that are beginning today.  And as for the others, I will hopefully get to them tomorrow before they start also.

CELTICS (57-25) VS. HAWKS (41-41)

FAIR & SQUARE

I believe that Atlanta's starting five are just as talented as those of the Celtics, even if that talent is not as well balanced.  Who's bench is superior is a matter of perspective.  Or let me just say that one paper, these teams are more or less evenly matched, except of defensive, where I believe Boston would have the advantage.

But another advantage the Celtics have is their winning culture.  The infamous Ime Udoka, who was heralded as some type of basketball guru last season, was forced out of his position, but Boston hasn't missed a beat.  Meanwhile the Hawks fired Nate McMillan mid-season, and afterwards it felt like their situation went from bad to worse.

If the Hawks have now found a definitive strategy, i.e. the one they used against the Heat in play-ins with Young as the main scorer, Murray as the secondary and the embattled John Collins third, you know, it would help if they actually did have a strategy against Boston, because their perimeter defenders are likely going to give Trae + Dejounte some fits. But the thing is that their bench was also really hot against Miami, in a way that no one is realistically expecting them to replicate over an entire series against the Celtics.

WHAT WILL THE NBA DO?

I don't believe that the NBA bigwigs want the Hawks winning this series.

THE X-FACTOR

The x-factor, once again, is Robert Williams, because if he's not playing or is wobbled, Clint Capela, who on the low is a really-good C, is going to go crazy with rebounds and perhaps dunks also.

SIXERS (54-28) VS. NETS (45-37)

FAIR & SQUARE

The Nets are a good team who have gone through all types of adversity yet remained competitive, but the buck should stop here.  I would say that perhaps throughout the past five seasons, no team has been as good as the Sixers.  The reason they haven't made it to the Finals during that time, or at least in a couple of those instances, can be chalked up to bad luck, if you want to put it like that.  But even if in case Joel Embiid, MVP he may be, is injured, they should still be able to handle the Nets.

WHAT WILL THE NBA DO?

I don't believe the NBA will go as far as to favor the Nets over the Sixers, but they may stretch the series out a bit.

THE X-FACTOR

Maybe I can put Cam Thomas here, but I don't know.  He can explode for 40 points on any given day(s).  But the thing is that he can do so, and the Nets will still lose.

KNICKS (47-35) VS. CAVS (51-31)

FAIR & SQUARE

Other analysts are predicting that this will be the most tightly-contested First Round series, but I have no hestitation picking the Cavs over the Knicks, because they have two things which NY doesn't - Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley.  The former has proven himself as the most-prolific scorer in the NBA, even if he hasn't won the scoring title, and the latter I'm still predicting as the second coming of Kareem.

The only way I perceive the Knicks winning this series, especially with Julius Randle hobbled, is if the Cavs suffer a major injury or two.  Then NYK's depth, which I believe is their greatest strength, will come to the forefront.

WHAT WILL THE NBA DO?

I personally don't see any reason why the NBA would want to interfere in this one.  If the Knicks win, they're one of the most-popular teams in all of American sports.  But the Cavs are more exciting to watch, with a bona fide superstar on their roster.  So whoever advances, it'd be a win for the league.

THE X-FACTOR

The Knicks' bench are the x-factor in this series.  It's clear that the one advantage New York does have over Cleveland is depth, and the Cavs' starting five can't play forever.  So the likes of Quickley, Toppin, Fournier and them really need to step up.  But that's contingent on Randle playing, because if not then they're depth will be significantly minimized.

KINGS (48-34) VS. WARRIORS (44-38)

FAIR & SQUARE

The Kings have been the Cinderella story of the 2022-23 season, and it'd be a shame to see them go in the First round.  But the Warriors are the Warriors, and maybe some team besides the 2016 Cavs will figure out a way to beat them even if the Splash Bros. are healthy.  But I don't that team will be Sacramento this year.  Or let me put like this - if the Kings do manage to beat the Dubs, then they can truly be considered contenders.

WHAT WILL THE NBA DO?

I belive that the NBA favors Golden State, but I can't predict with confidence that, if necessary, they'd actually rig the series in their favor.  The Dubs are gonna have to fall off eventually, and if the Kings are able to legitimately knock them out, I don't see why the powers that be would hate.

THE X-FACTOR

That would be Andrew Wiggins, of course.  Teams are being fined all types of crazy money for quote/unquote 'tanking', but a star player resting for two or three months and then coming back right before the playoffs should raise eyebrows also.

CONCLUSION

I really like the Hawks, but it doesn't seem reasonable, given their struggles all season, that they'll now flip a switch and beat the Celtics, who are as consistent as they come.  The Sixers shouldn't really have much of a problem with the Nets, and if the Cavs do against the Knicks, it would be because of their lack of depth.  Also, it's quite telling that even though the Kings have homecourt advantage, they're considered underdogs by many against the Dubs.

2023 Eastern Conference Play-in Predictions

Now that the 2023 Playoffs brackets are starting to settle in, I can also began my predictions in terms of who I believe will emerge victorious.  I do believe that sometimes, the better team may not emerge victorious because the NBA powers-that-be deem otherwise.  So I'm going to split each series prediction into two categories, "Fair and Share" and "What Will the NBA Do".  The first centers on who I think will win the series, barring (additional) major injuries.  And that second category is just in case I also feel that the NBA may favor a particular squad, even if they aren't better.  And to note, a higher bracket positioning doesn't actually mean that a team is superior to another.  For instance in some cases, such as has been recently pointed out with the Bucks and Celtics, the former may have a better record, but the latter matches up against them particularly well.

HAWKS (41-40) vs HEAT (43-38)

If you would have told me at the beginning of this season that the Hawks would have finished 8th in the East, I would've had a hard time believing it.  I rather thought they would be contenders, contingent on Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, two alpha PGs, working things out in the backcourt.  But not only aren't they contenders, but also, you would have to believe looking at their record, were never able to incorporate Murray as idealized, even if he is averaging over 20ppg.  In fact what it rather looks like his presence is negatively affecting John Collins' game.

FAIR & SQUARE

Tbh, I haven't seen the Hawks play enough this season to really pin down what their problem is.  But logic would dictate that if they haven't gotten their shit together by now, it's not suddenly going to happen against the Heat, a team who, despite disappointing this season also, at least know their identity.

WHAT WILL THE NBA DO?

I don't see any reason why the NBA would interfere in this one.  But I would presume they'd want Miami to prevail over Atlanta for a number of reasons, such as the Heat being more popular and also EC playoffs' fixtures.

RAPTORS (40-41) VS. BULLS (39-42)

Two more teams that disappointed this season.  Well, at least the Raptors are a disappointment to me, because I thought after getting a quality bigman (Jakob Poeltl) they were going to prove themselves contenders.  Instead, it's as if his presence fukedup their chemistry.  Oh well, no one was really expecting them to do anything this season anyway, I guess except the owners themselves, since they're reportedly on the verge of sacking Nick Nurse.

FAIR & SQUARE

I have to give this one to the Bulls, because their stars, and especially DeRozan, are known to be more clutch than those of the Raptors.  Imagine that, DeMar knocking his old squad out of the playoffs.

WHAT WILL THE NBA DO?

I also believe the NBA wants the Bulls to win.  Would they go as far as to rig for them?  In their eyes I don't think they'd be much of a difference between Chicago or Toronto potentially making the playoffs.  But what should be remembered is that the Bulls got all but decimated by the Bucks - who they would once again go to face in the First Round if they make it past the play-ins - during the 2022 Playoffs.

CONCLUSION

Miami also convincingly handled the Hawks the last year, which is presumably why they went out in got Dejounte in the first place.  So if nothing else, this play-in should act as a litmus test as to whether that experiment has been successful.  In other words, if they beat the Heat it may be considered a success and something to build further on.  But if not, well, don't blame the shit on John Collins.