TIMBERWOLVES 2, NUGGETS 0
When Minnesota (likely) wins the championship, don't forget who predicted it first. In fact, I foresaw it since the beginning of last season.
During the last post, maybe I was a bit hasty in saying that the Nuggets don't finally miss Bruce Brown. I'm not saying that if he was still around, it would ultimately make a difference with a team built like the Timberwolves. But it would have given them a better chance than relying on the likes of Reggie Jackson or Christian Braun, since Brown has proven, going back to his days with the Nets, that he can score on anyone and even carry a team of superstars offensively.
I know this past year kinda sucked for Bruce, but I can imagine him having a hearty laugh now, and I hope he gets picked up by some contender during the offseason rather than being stuck in the wasteland known as the Toronto Raptors.
I also hope the world finally realizes what I meant in the past when arguing that it's not proper to give a center who can't or doesn't play defense, i.e. Nikola Jokic, MVP. This isn't anything personal against "the Joker" - a nickname which reads like a jab in and of itself. But C is traditionally the most important defensive position in basketball. You don't notice so much when playing against teams that rely on jumpshots, as most do these days. But now, with so many Timberwolves driving to the basket, the Nuggets are being exposed.
Behind the scenes, that may ultimately be Denver's undoing - their cockiness, as exhibited by their inability to properly foretell challenges. Granted, you being the reigning champion, getting blown out during the playoffs in your own arena has to be frustrating. But when you have dudes, even a star of the team, throwing tantrums and shit, that shows that not only have they forgotten how to lose but also never really exercised the possibility of such transpiring. That's the kinda shit that can happen when you beat a big-name yet mediocre team like the Lakers. 'Hey, we just beat Lebron and AD' can make you forget just how suspect and disorganized LAL actually is.
I can't see the future and therefore am not going to sit here like 'the Nuggets are going to get swept'. But with the T'wolves beating them by nearly 30 points(!) in Denver(!!) without Rudy Gobert(!!!), it's definitely looking that way.
Maybe Denver's braintrust needs to read this blog more. I was the one who's been suggesting for a season or two that they go after a shot blocker, like Mo Bamba, to mitigate the Joker's defensive woes and that of the Nuggets' frontline in general. If they do end up getting swept right after winning a championship, well, it'll be interesting to see what comes next for this squad.
KNICKS 1, PACERS 0
This is yet another series where Indiana may not have homecourt advantage but are just as talented, if not more so, than the team they're facing.
In Game 1, NYK basically rode the shoulders of Jalen Brunson. That's not the worst strategy as now Jalen is looking like a perennial all-star. But I question the sustainability of that method throughout an entire series against the Pacers, after the Knicks already more or less leaned on it versus the Sixers.
Randle has already been out. More recently, Bogdanovic, one of the best shooters in the NBA and an excellent acquisition of the Knicks, went down for the Playoffs. Now, they're saying that Mitchell Robinson won't play in Game 2 and is also no-go until next season, which I think is an even bigger blow to NYK than losing Julius or Bojan.
So the Pacers are definitely poised to win this series. If the Knicks rather emerge victorious, it would have to be due more to heroics and outsmarting Indiana than outclassing them (unless they start suffering major injuries also). OG Anonoby for instance, I wouldn't be surprised if he makes all-star next season. If I were building a team, he's exactly the type of forward I would want, as is Josh Hart - the types who's playing styles are more organized and team-oriented than erratic.
THUNDER 1, MAVERICKS 0
Talent- and depth-wise, these two teams are more or less evenly matched. Chet Holmgren is the best bigman in the series, but Dallas seems to have more quality bigs in general. Luka + Kyrie are the better starting backcourt offensively, but the best starting G defensively is Lu Dort.
The one clear advantage OKC does have though is that their core is younger. It's starting to feel like Kyrie has been in the NBA forever, and Luka was never particularly a model of athleticism in comparison to his peers. Irving probably has more NBA mileage than the entirety of the Thunder's starting five. Fair and square, those types of things matter in sports - a lot.
In fact in the game of basketball, there's only two things that trump talent (besides rigging) - youth/athleticism and to a lesser degree, strategy. So Dallas is obviously going to have to rely on the latter, either that or both Irving and Doncic getting ridiculously hot (which is sorta possible) - meaning that it's time for Jason Kidd and the rest of the coaching staff to tap into their inner guru.
CELTICS 1, CAVALIERS 0
Cleveland scored a big break in facing Boston without Kristaps Porzingis. But by the looks of things, they're going to fail to capitalize for two reasons.
First is Jarrett Allen also being injured (as usual). Second, based on their Game 1 performance, the Cavs are totally unable to use Evan Mobley to exploit the middle sans Porzingis. It appears they didn't even really try to, which shows how wing dependent their offense actually is. Also, Mobley weighs about the same as Jason Tatum, and Al Horford is considerably heavier. So it ain't like he's able to back either of them down at will.
The first couple of times I saw Mobley play, I speculated that he may be the second coming of Kareem, like he appeared to have the build and the potential. But instead of developing his post game, he was rather pressured to learn how to shoot from outside. If Evan had a skilled post game, he could bust a couple of moves downlow and shoot right over Tatum or Horford.
Over the past few years, Cleveland has done an excellent job of assembling deep, talented rosters, amongst the best in the East. But their braintrust overall leaves something to be desired, because their on-court strategy sucks. 'Just give the ball to Donovan' barely worked against the Magic, so it's unlikely to prevail versus the Celtics, hobbled as they may be. They're basically trying to beat Boston at their own game, which is not going to work.
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