TIMBERWOLVES 3, SUNS 0
The T'wolves are a better all-around team than the Suns. But I presumed Phoenix would perform better than this, with the series being a clash between two different playing styles - wings v. size. In fact, I heard one announcer say that the Suns swept the season series against Minnesota, which is in fact true. You'd never know that looking at the way the Wolves are currently dominating them.
Phoenix made two major roster mistakes going back to last season. One was, when KD arrived, not forcing him to cede the point to CP3. Second, which is only really becoming obvious now, was parting with Deandre Ayton. I'm not saying if he was still around they'd win the series, but you have to presume they'd at least fare better against for instance a slashing Anthony Edwards. Beal, one of the most overrated superstars in the league (nothing personal), isn't really doing anything. And I'm sure I said before that teaming him up KD + Booker felt sorta like overkill.
But that said, again, I had some pretty high hopes for the Suns. Too bad their 1st round opponents are the team that's likely to take the West. I feel bad for KD, but this is what happens when you prioritize instant super-teaming over gradually building a complementary roster.
KNICKS 2, SIXERS 1
In Game 3, Embiid shot more free throws than the entire Knicks' roster. Prior to that, in Game 2 at the Garden, Philly complained about the officiating. So this looks like a series where home court matters, you know, in that sorta way, like college basketball if you will.
With that in mind, the Knicks should take the series. Furthermore, I would argue that they are the superior team. I criticize Thibs a lot and also enjoy making fun of NYK's braintrust, but this team they've constructed is like some real guru sh*t.
The Sixers' roster is not inferior to the Knicks. Currently, their main problem, the way I see it, is Joel having basically lost his defensive efficacy. That's more or less to be expected given his injury woes. Superstars with these battered bodies can still score, but their defense tends to suck.
MAVERICKS 2, CLIPPERS 1
I made a big mistake claiming that Dallas doesn't have any interior presence based on their Game 1 performance. But I have been rightfully arguing for a long time that the Clippers' main problem was lack of depth at the 5. And that really hurts when you're starting someone as small as Kawhi Leonard at the 4.
When LAC acquired Mason Plumlee, I thought that he may be answer. What I'm imagining now is that they should start Mason at the 4 and move Terrance Mann out of the starting lineup. That may not be a perfect fit, considering the speed of Dallas's bigs. But they can't just be letting dudes highlight reel them at will.
CAVALIERS 2, MAGIC 1
The way the Cavs got their asses bust in Game 3, despite being the better team, connotes one of two things. Either they were really off that night, or, you already know.
I've been saying, since the conclusion of last season, that the NBA powers that be do not favor Cleveland. I won't go as far as to speculate that Orlando will take the series. But either way, I'm not expecting the Cavs to really go far in these playoffs.
NUGGETS 3, LAKERS 0
Aaron Gordon is the best PF in the NBA. There are other players at that position who are more talented, but none better at holding down the innate responsibilities of being a 4 than he is.
When Gordon first came to Denver, he was shooting threes, and the team was losing. Since then he got incepted, got his ass back in the post, and now Denver is virtually unbeatable.
The reason Jokic can play like 2 and Porter Jr., as tall as he is, can lurk around the three-point line is because of the efficacy of Aaron inside. While other teams were out trying to build their own version of the Dubs, the Nuggets' braintrust, which has always been better than average, was like 'wait, better to fight fire with water'.
So starting Lebron at the 4 and expecting him, at his advanced age, to hold Gordon is borderline comical. It's almost judgment time for Darvin Ham. But it isn't really his fault. The Lakers' roster feels like one with more problems than solutions, and some things they do are inexplicable. For instance, Jerrod Vanderbilt is probably the second-best rebounder on the team, you know, if you actually give him playing time. So why is he riding the bench?
Hopefully, LAL will follow my advice and get Zach LaVine during the offseason. He may not solve their defensive woes, but at least it'll have the team feeling like the Lakers once again.
Also, as King James ages, you know what |I'm saying? He shouldn't be eating up an inordinate amount of the team's salary. If dudes want to win, he has to give up a little so they can afford the types of players they need. Besides Austin Reeves, every Laker outside of LBJ and AD feels expendable.
CELTICS 2, HEAT 1
I don't mean to sound racist are anything, but Miami is fielding too many white players to hope to contain Boston. Whiteboys are excellent shooters, and on rare occasion you may come across one, like Alex Caruso, who is a plus defender. But that's more of the exception than the rule, especially when it comes to wings. And the best Caucasian player of the series, Kristaps Porzingis, happens to belong to the Celtics.
I criticized Kristaps in my last post, in terms of his reluctance to play inside, but he's effective enough against the Heat. The only real advantage Miami has (on offense) would be playing Adebayo in the post (against Porzingis). Jacquez is also good at penetrating and scoring. But the Heat have become so reliant on three-pointers that asking them to re-strategize at this point is apparently out of the question, even though they're up against a team that shoots better than they do. Duh.
I also want to give Kristaps additional props, because now I see the value of having a 7+ footer who's good at shooting threes. It's like he's so tall that it doesn't really matter if a defender is in his face, unless the defender also is really tall.
All of that said, the Heat are without Jimmy Butler, their franchise player who also happens to be one of the best playoff performers. I believe in miracles, but without Butler and against a better team with a similar playing style, it doesn't appear that Miami truly has a chance unless maybe, as a team, they're hitting at least 40% from three.
PACERS 2, BUCKS 1
The Bucks have a lot of heart. They're aged, and their roster isn't that deep. But still, they're giving a younger and more talented team a run for their money.
Or let me clarify that - Indiana is deeper and definitely more talented than Milwaukee with Giannis not playing. It is that injury, imo, which has the Pacers the advantage. But you have to give them credit for also appearing poised enough, against a really good team, to capitalize on it.
THUNDER 3, PELICANS 1
Of the 16 teams currently in the Playoffs, three of them - Milwaukee, Miami and New Orleans - are without their franchise player. And in the case of NOP especially, the question must be begged: what value is a superstar, if he's injured when you need him most? (The answer = ticket sales).
One thing I like about OKC's offensive game is that they appear to be patient. It isn't like watching teams such as the Heat where, if their three-pointers aren't going in, they aren't going to win. The Thunder play like they have strategic options on offense.
Also, I'm increasingly becoming appreciative of Holmgren's defensive game. As for Josh Giddey, he needs to learn how to at least jump on defense.
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