My original intent was to publish this article before the season started, but you know how that goes. There's 30 teams in the NBA and like 500 players - so many variables, not to mention the influence of braintrusts and the league itself. But still, if we all make it to the All-Star Break, I hope to update these predictions even more comprehensively. And yes, some of these assessments were influenced by the first few days of the season, but not really.
My formula is really simple, being T + C = W (talent + compatibility = winning). And talent would also include the strength of a team's overall organization. And as much I didn't want to take injuries into consideration, with some teams/players I didn't have any choice but to. But for the most part, these predictions are made with the assumption that the entire team remains reasonably healthy throughout the season.
The list begins with the team that I believe, in all honesty, is most likely to win the championship based on the above formula. And it concludes with the one which I believe is least likely to do so.
TIER 1 - CONTENDERS
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
I have no question this is top-to-down the most talented team in the NBA. Whether or not that translate into winning though is ultimately another story, as in how they manage the starting five, as the last thing you need on a team this diverse is a chuck running the point.
KYLE ANDERSON - a solid pickup
ANTHONY EDWARDS - may be the strongest G in the NBA
KAT - can finally play outside the post without criticism, but still shouldn't
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
They're basically the Nets of the West, having the best G core in their conference, but their C depth/talent isn''t particularly up to contender level. Only teams who won like that I can think of would be the Jordan Bulls and the Dubs.
ROBERT COVINGTON - one of my favorite players in the NBA
KAWHI LEONARD - would be a legend by this point, if not for the injuries
JOHN WALL - whom the geniuses in Houston opted not to play
IVICA ZUBAC - the most important player on this roster
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
They can't depend on the Splash Bros. forever, but that's the same thing I said last season.
JONATHAN KUMINGA - a Giannis in the making?
JORDAN POOLE - may be overpaid, but they will need him
JAMES WISEMAN - first time Dubs had a lean, athletic true C
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Losing Markennen sucked, but they still have arguably the most balanced roster in the league.
ROBIN LOPEZ - one of the better C-list centers in the league
DONOVAN MITCHELL - just what the doctor ordered?
BOSTON CELTICS
Losing Danilo Galinari, even though he never suited up for Boston, kinda sucked out the hope I had for this team's progression. Also, it doesn't appear they got an interior defender to backup Robert Williams, and their perimeter defense is overrated. Hopefully, the chucks on this team will pass the ball to Brogdon.
MALCOLM BROGDON - still one of the best shooters in the NBA?
MARCUS SMART - he clipped Steph, but Curry got the last laugh
ROBERT WILLIAMS III - only Tatum is more important
MIAMI HEAT
At the beginning of last offseason, this is the team I thought was going to win it all (since the Nuggets were injured). Since then they lost a couple of key players but didn't make any notable additions, meaning that the Heat are now relying on internal development, which isn't the worst strategy given their roster but also not the best.
KYLE LOWRY - past his prime
DUNCAN ROBINSON - the Lakers could really use him
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
One thing I learned is never to sleep on the Sixers' (winning percentage), even though I'm still not exactly sure why they made PJ Tucker a priority during the offseason. I still think the James Harden trade was dumb from a compatability standpoint, but no use crying over spilt milk.
JOEL EMBIID - with all these shooters around, needs to play more in the post
JAMES HARDEN - best third option in the NBA, but is beyond humbling himself
TYRESE MAXEY - top 5 scoring G in the NBA, but the Beard sitting on his mojo
ATLANTA HAWKS
Trae should just let Dejounte run the point, since Murray is an all-around PG. But then, that may take Young out of his comfort zone, which is a dilemma the Hawks have logically already prepared themselves for.
CLINT CAPELA - underrated
DE'ANDRE HUNTER - should maybe average more rebounds, given his height and positioning
TRAE YOUNG - now needs to learn how to play off the ball
TIER 2 - BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR
CHICAGO BULLS
The Bulls have both the talent and the depth, but still, something just doesn't feel right.
LONZO BALL - might as well retire
DENVER NUGGETS
They finally made notable roster changes and had a pretty good offseason. Also at the beginning of last season, I predicted that a healthy Nuggets squad would win it all. Well this year they are "healthy", but I'm I'm beyond believing they'll remain that way.
BRUCE BROWN - the Nets should have kept him
AARON GORDON - finally, Orlando-level Aaron Gordon?
BONES HYLAND - kudos to the Nuggets for recognizing his potential
NIKOLA JOKIC - distracts defenses, whether he's doing anything or not
MICHEAL PORTER JR - fingers crossed
BROOKLYN NETS
All things considered, it would be better if they had Jarrett Allen than Simmons or the Beard.
NICOLAS CLAXTON - most important player on this team
KEVIN DURANT - best chuck in the NBA
DAY'RON SHARPE - most important bench player
BEN SIMMONS - most important all-around player
PHOENIX SUNS
I believe the Suns are gonna miss McGee and Crowder, though Jae is still technically around.
MILES BRIDGES - best all-around player on the team at this point
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
The Bucks have a solid roster, but I just don't feel that they're contenders. Why? They didn't make any upgrades, and Khris Middleton's wrist or whatever is fucked up. But they do have an organization that encourages internal development.
GIANNIS ANTETOKOUMPO - may be under too much pressure
KHRIS MIDDLETON - wrist injuries are painful AF
NEW YORK KNICKS
Now I feel kinda stupid having underestimated Jalen Brunson, because he seems to be exactly what the Knicks need. In fact he's what a lot of teams need - a starting-level PG who's also clutch and doesn't chuck.
RJ BARRETT - overpaid, but it's all good
D-ROSE - one of the few players from the aughts who's still relevant
JALEN BRUNSON - a combination of Derek Fisher and Allen Iverson?
MITCHELL ROBINSON - most important starter of this team
IMMANUEL QUICKLEY - continueS to be overshadowed by Tyrese Maxey
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
The Grizzlies lost a couple of key players and don't really seem to have acquired any type of immediate return, unless Danny Green finds the fountain of youth.
STEVEN ADAMS - still question his fit next to Morant
DESMOND BANE - doubt if he can replicate last season
DILLON BROOKS - the new no.2 option
BRANDON CLARKE - will eventually have to start next to Adams
JAREN JACKSON JR. - when?
JA MORANT - MVP
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
JOSE ALVERADO - the main player reppin NYC right now
DEVONTE GRAHAM - wasn't he once one of the best 3pt shooters?
LARRY NANCE JR. - could probably benefit from some weight loss
ZION WILLIAMSON - should be studying the footwork of Charles Barkley
TORONTO RAPTORS
I'm now starting to believe what they say about dudes not wanting to play in places like Toronto due to remoteness, because even though this team is damn good, like they never attract star free agents. Once they do, they'd probably be contenders again.
TIER 3 - ONLY FATES KNOWS
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
One of the best organizations in the NBA when it comes to perennially fielding a competitive roster. And this season, they may also be entertaining.
JUSUF NIRKIC - don't quite understand why Blazers keep him around
GARY PAYTON JR. - perfect fit, if Damian was like 5 years younger
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Maybe his mind was already made up, but the Mavs are gonna regret losing Brunson.
LUKA DONCIC - would rather be at home than the USA
TIM HARDAWAY JR - really needs to stay healthy this season
JAVALE MCGEE - the Robert Horry of today's NBA
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Another team that I placed down a tier due to health issues, esp of course pertaining to AD.
PATRICK BEVERLY - needs to stop shooting threes
ANTHONY DAVIS - should (once again) start to think about retirement
LEBRON JAMES - the GOAT, from a statistical standpoint
LONNIE WALKER - they're going to need two of him
RUSSELL WESTBROOK - needs to stop shooting threes, always pass to LBJ when he posts
SACRAMENTO KINGS
For a second there, I forgot the Kings existed. There effort to rebuild from the draft didn't work, and the braintrust finally seems to have recognized that.
RICHAUN HOLMES - on the low, one of the better Cs in the NBA
DAVION MITCHELL - underrated
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
I really believed in the Wizards at the beginning of last season and don't want to risk making that mistake twice, even if the roster may now be deeper.
BRADLEY BEAL - an exceptional, if incosquential scorer
KYLE KUZMA - most underrated PF in the NBA
KRISTAPS PORZINGIS - I once believed he'd be one of the greats
DETROIT PISTONS
The braintrust of the Pistons is so intelligent that they're even though their primary mission is to develop couple of scoring Gs, they will not let them play alongside Kemba Walker, one of the best veteran scoring guards of the last decade.
JADEN IVEY - perfect young complement to Cunningham
KEMBA WALKER - team not deep enough for him not to play
TIER 4 - THE LUCK OF THE DRAW
HOUSTON ROCKETS
I still don't know much about this team except that they almost beat Kyrie + KD in Brooklyn at the end of last season. And what it looked like they were missing at the time, as with the Nets, was a true PG.
JABARI SMITH JR. - didn't go no.1, but still under the same type of pressure
INDIANA PACERS
I'm kinda confused as to what the Indiana Pacers' short-term goal is. But if they do end up in the lottery, with Myles Turner they'll be more attractuve than any other team there.
MYLES TURNER - a Bradley Beal level of devotion?
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
They don't have any all-stars or even regular stars, kinda like at the beginning of last season. Still, didn't they make the play-ins or something?
DOUG MCDERMOTT - the only name besides Poeltl and Collins I kinda recognize
JAKOB POELTL - the team's alpha dog
GREGG POPOVICH - it's only because of him they're not at the bottom of this list
ORLANDO MAGIC
JONATHAN ISAAC - whatever happened to that guy?
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
SHAI-GILGEOUS ALEXANDER - too bad he got stuck on this squad
JOSH GIDDEY - too tall to be running point on this roster
CHET HOLGREM - should've learned from Gordon Hayward about bumping into Lebron
TRE MANN - like Steph without the dribble
UTAH JAZZ
I hope to write an article in the near future about what it really means for Danny Ainge to have so many draft picks in the near future.
JORDAN CLARKSON - would really love to see him on a contender
RUDY GAY - he's still playing?
COLLIN SEXTON - may not be granted as much control as people first believed
JARRED VANDERBILT - on the low, an exceptional rebounder
CHARLOTTE HORNETS
So many hopes dashed just like that, but some unknown player on this team is bound to become a star.
KELLY OUBRE - who would've ever thought that he would be a no.1 option?
CONCLUSION
I would really like to say with confidence that either the T-wolves or Clippers are going to win it all, but I can't because I don't have faith in Minnesota's coaching/luck/favor, and LAL is too thin up front. Meanwhile the Warriors have a rounded roster, and more importantly they win when the opportunity presents itself.
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