I had already missed the opportunity to write this post before Game 1, so my plan was to wait until Game 2 and see if the Nets managed to tie it up, thus basically resetting the series. But now, NBC is reporting something like maybe Ben Simmons will come back once to play in Brooklyn (that's Simmons for you). That really hasn't changed my prediction though, like it's still more or less the same of what I was thinking before the series began.
One thing that did change my perception a bit was Game 1. When I wrote previously that the Nets need Simmons, I was focusing more on him running the offense. But now, it's clear they need him even more on the other end of the floor.
BROOKLYN NETS
Arguably the most-talented 7 seed ever, arguably.
STARTING 5 MAKEUP
SG-SG-SF-SF-C (Shooting Guard, Shooting Guard, Small Forward, Small Forward, Center)
I didn't list Kyrie as a 2guard because in reality, since looking to pass isn't really his thing, he's more of like a short SG. Also KD can play power forward, but since he's reluctant to post up he's more like small forward.
BIGGEST STRENGTH
Kyrie or KD, depending on who's hotter on any given night.
BIGGEST WEAKNESS
Lack of interior presence. This problem was supposed to be solved when they got Andre Drummond. But if dude gets into foul trouble, like he did in Game 1, then Claxton doesn't look completely ready yet (despite putting up impressive numbers). And like, where's LaMarcus Aldridge?
X-FACTOR
As much as I hate to say it, that would be Ben Simmons, if he actually suits up.
KARMA ASSESSMENT
Everyone laughs when you're a superteam(?) that loses. It's like they want you to succeed and fail at the same time. But the Nets are due some good karma after the way the Beard bounced on them.
BOSTON CELTICS
The best team of the last decade not to win a Championship, and that's probably not going to change now, especially with Robert Williams hurt, unless maybe they end up making the Finals against the Warriors.
STARTING 5 MAKEUP
PG-SG-SF-PtC-C (Point Guard, Shooting Guard, Small Forward, PointCenter, C)
I listed Al Horford as a PtC because he's versatile and even if starting at the 4 will likely be spending more time at C with Williams out.
BIGGEST STRENGTH
There are certain eras in the NBA where there's so many MVP candidates floating around that you can't show everybody love. And right now Jayson Tatum, as foreseen by Danny Ainge himself, is one of the best players in the league.
BIGGEST WEAKNESS
I didn't intend to mention Robert Williams so much, but besides needing him against a team like the Nets, the roster looks terribly thin without him. In fact the Celtics lacked depth even when he was active.
X-FACTOR
I would have to say Al Horford. He's been underrated like forever, because he's one of those types of players who doesn't put up big numbers unless he has to. And now is one of those situations, though it's hard to imagine that would have gotten 15 rebounds(!) if Drummond played more minutes.
KARMA ASSESSMENT
At first I thought Marcus Smart, who kinda surprisingly won DPOY, clipped Steph Curry a couple of months back. And then when Williams went down, I was like 'yeah, karma'. But now after seeing that Steph/Smart play from a few more angles, I'm not so sure.
Also besides the Warriors, I believe the Celtics have the longest running three-man core in Smart, Tatum and Brown. That kinda shit matters, and hopefully no one will get injured.
CONCLUSION
The reason Game 1 was so eye-opening is because it showed just how much the Nets backcourt defense sucks. No one is expecting Seth Curry to make any spectacular plays on D. And as for Kyrie, his transition defense is lacking, and his D in the post is downright poor. So when Drummond is also on the bench, it's like they're really exposed.
But then, Simmons is supposed to be like the best defensive guard in the league. Also, remember that dude is like 6'7". So just being totally honest, it's hard to imagine the Celtics having won Game 1 if he were playing.
So my prediction is that if the Celtics win Game 2, even if Simmons does come back in Game 3, as rumored, it'd probably be too late. But if they can win Game 2 without him they can take the series, but they'll still need him to come back against the Celtics eventually.
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