2nd Round Predictions - Warriors vs. Grizzlies

This is a hard series to call, because all season it's been like the Grizzlies have been beating up on these older, established teams, especially out West.  But in Golden State's defense, I don't think they ever played against Memphis at full strength, as the Warriors are now.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

They still remain my sentimental favorites, but this may be where the buck stops.

STARTING 5 MAKEUP

PG-SG-2G-SF-PF (point guard, shooting guard, 2guard, small forward, power forward)

That's based on the starting lineup the Warriors rolled out in Game 5 against the Nuggets, which consisted of all three Splash Brothers + Draymond and Andrew Wiggins.  That's supposed to be their new "Death Lineup" or whatever, but it leaves much to be desired in terms of starting that combination.

BIGGEST STRENGTH

Bob Fitzgerald and Kelenna Azubuike are my favorite pair of announcers, after only Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy.  Mark and Jeff, being established in the NBA pantheon, don't give AF.  But it's amusing listening to Bob and Kelenna, because you can tell they're real Warriors fan.  Like if Golden State is down by even a point, they get nervous - like true fans, who want their team to lead throughout the entire game.  In Game 5 the Warriors were down by like 10 in the third quarter, and dudes were panicking.

But like I said before, big leads, unless maybe you're up by 30, doesn't mean shit against the Splash Brothers.  When Steph gets going, the threes and layups he makes are so unorthodox that there's nothing a defense can do.  When Klay is hot, on top of making his own crazy threes he also attacks from the midrange, and there's nothing defenses can do.  And Poole has like this slashing game in addition to a sometimes-hot threepointer, even though I fear at times he may break his own ankles.

BIGGEST WEAKNESS

I hope Steve Kerr doesn't start all three Splash Bros. like he did in Game 5.  Steph was averaging nearly 30ppg coming off the bench(!) earlier in the series.  And as outstanding as that was, of course when there's egos etc. involved, he wasn't going to remain on the bench for long.  But if you have to start Steph out of respect, then that means Jordan has to go to the bench.

X-FACTOR

I'd like to say Jonathan Kuminga in this case, and maybe the Gauntlet.  If there's one advantage the Grizzlies have over Golden State, it's youthful energy.  And in matching that, there's may be no better player on the Warriors roster than Kuminga.  Also, Gary Payton Jr. has the best chance of all defenders in locking Ja Morant down, even though he seems to play dirty sometimes.

KARMA ASSESSMENT

The Warriors appear to have really good karma in terms of supporting each other.  Even some quality players who haven't been getting any burn during the Playoffs seem real supportive of the ones that are.  But the thing is that if there's one team that perhaps has even better karma amongst its roster, imo that'd be the Grizzlies.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

The Grizzlies had a tough time against Minnesota, but that's understandable, because the Timberwolves are a really talented team to be a 7 seed.

STARTING 5 MAKEUP

The Grizzlies benched Steven Adams, perhaps after being incepted.  But I think I finally figured it out.  When Ja Morant is unable to play, Memphis is better with Adams.  But when he's running around all wascally and shit, they're better off playing someone younger and faster at the 5.

So I would presume they'll continue to start Xavier Tillman at C, whose like a cross between a slower, traditional C and a younger, faster one.  But of course Brandon Clarke, who falls more into the latter category, will end up getting more minutes.

BIGGEST WEAKNESS

I'm not inclined at this point to say the Grizzlies have a weakness besides the potential for injury.  But if they had a hard time defending Edwards/Russell, than the Splash Brothers are prolly going to drive their perimeter defense crazy.

X-FACTOR

Dillon Brooks, who I never even heard of until like a month ago, has really grown on me.  And he's like pretty big to be a SF.

KARMA ASSESSMENT

The Grizzlies be deadass partying before and after games.  Sometimes I think it's foolish, or cocky to say the least, to do so beforehand.  And of course, we don't really know what goes on behind the scenes.  But these dudes look like they have each other backs.  Also, it is possible that they have the backing of the NBA itself.

CONCLUSION

It makes me nervous to have the audacity to predict against the Splash Bros. and rather go with a team that has a questionable perimeter defense, but I think Memphis, if healthy, will take the series.

Ja Morant is a giant killer, the one player most responsible for humbling Lebron and the Lakers this season.  He put up Magic-like numbers against the Timberwolves, and his pops still dissed him.  And that may just be the additional fire he needs to pick the Warriors apart.

1st Round Prediction - Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves

My original plan was to write this post yesterday, before the series started.  But in a way I'm glad I, because Game 1 was revelatory.  But I still have to believe that the Grizzlies will find a way to beat the Timberwolves, maybe.

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

By NBA Inception standards the Timberwolves are a superteam, i.e. a squad with three all-stars.  KAT has been on the best Cs since he came into the NBA.  Anthony Edwards will likely be an All-Star next season.  And D'Angelo Russell has already proven that he can be an All-Star if he were forced to actually run a team.

STARTING 5 MAKE-UP

PG-2G-SF-PF-C (PointGuard, 2Gaurd, Small Forward, Power Forward, Center)

The T-Wolves have a pretty traditional starting 5 structure, even though Russell may not really be like a true 2 (defensively).  This can work with players with Edwards and KAT, because Patrick Beverly is like pass first PG.

BIGGEST STRENGTH

I would have to say KAT.

BIGGEST WEAKNESS

Depth, maybe.  But the overall depth of a team isn't as important when you have three offensive all-stars.

X-FACTOR / KARMA ASSESSMENT

If I had written this article yesterday, I would have listed Anthony Edwards as the x-factor.  And that would have been cool, because then he went out and bust the Grizzlies ass.  But now, I'm more compelled to go with Patrick Beverly.

I knew he would be a good fit when the Wolves got him last offseason.  But now it's like, don't forget Minnesota is a team where traditionally superstars tend to butt heads.  So now I'm thinking like if Beverly wasn't around, maybe KAT and Edwards would have some type of alpha beef considering that Anthony may be just as good as Karl.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

I'll be honest and say I'm a Grizzlies fan.  They're my second favorite team at the moment.  So as good as the T-wolves may be, I'd be disappointed if the Griz ends up getting their asses bust by them.

STARTING 5 MAKEUP

2G-2G-SF-PF-C

I know that Ja Morant is a PG, but I think most of us would agree that he's more dangerous as a scorer than a facilitator.  Also, I had no idea that Dillon Brooks was 6'7" until I just now looked it up.  Before I thought he was a little guy.

BIGGEST STRENGTH

Of course most people would answer this question by saying "Ja Morant".  But things aren't that simple when you consider that the Grizzlies have had a better winning percentage this season without him.

BIGGEST WEAKNESS

As for his character, Steven Adams is one of my favorite players in the NBA.  But even some months ago, I was on the verge of mentioning that he seems out of place on the Grizzlies.  The reason I never said that is because I later found out that he leads the league in offensive rebounds.  And honestly that fact really shocked me, because every time I've watched Memphis play it's like he didn't really do jackshit.

X-FACTOR

I would have to say Jaren Jackson Jr.  He's the team best defender, and defense is the one thing you really need against the Timberwolves.

KARMA ASSESSMENT

It looks like the members of the Grizzlies genuinely like each other.  That's the glow of winning.  The problem is that - like let me just go ahead and say it - as good as they may be, they may be even better when Morant isn't playing.  Every time that happens - a team being arguably better without its franchise player - shit can get sticky, especially if dudes end up disappointing with Ja playing.

CONCLUSION

I'm still going with the Grizzlies on this one, even though my confidence has now been shaken.  Maybe they'll try something like benching Adams and starting Clarke, for all the good that may do against KAT.  But the thing is that Edwards and Russell, as well as some role players, also have to be chased around the court.  So Memphis has to become like super focused on defense.  But at least they have the depth to do so.