One of the reasons it took me so long to get this post up is because finally, after 30 something years, I feel like I'm starting to outgrow the NBA. However, this boredom is not wholly organic. Part of it has to do with what feels like increasingly-recurrent and shameless incidences of rigging. And second is that the fact that half of the superstars of today are regularly injured and/or disgruntled. If not for the arrival of Victor Wembanyama, who really is fun to watch, I probably wouldn't be interested in this season.
That said, I do I believe the theme of the 2023-24 NBA is parity. The league has been striving to make all teams equal for years, and they've by and large achieved that goal.
For instance, as it currently stands, there's only one hands-down superteam, that being the Suns. There also seems to be more players than ever with like little-to-no notoriety. Also, you may agree that at the bottom tier of this list, there are at least one or two (garbage) teams that may be more fun to watch than some of the contenders. Also, perhaps more than any other time in NBA history, there's at least five young yet formidable squads. And the reason that's important to point out is because in the world of athletics, youth can trump talent and experience.
So I believe the only teams that have have a true edge entering the season, all things considered, are the Warriors, Nuggets and, to some degree, the Bucks and Sixers, because they not only have the talent and experience but also continuity. However, Phoenix is the only squad at this moment I believe can just win on sheer talent alone (especially on offense). Late last season, when they acquired KD, I hastily predicted they would win it all and later had to eat those words. But that said, in terms of predicting who will come out on top, I'm once again compelled to go with...
PHOENIX SUNS
In the last 30 years, there were at least three iterations of the Suns who were bonafide contenders. So relatively speaking, this organization knows what it's doing. But acquiring Nurkic to complement their big three really took the cake. I was peeping out some preseason action recently, and he was playing beautifully with Durant, as if they were made to ball together.
But with KD, the way I see it, this team has to prove they're contenders out of the gate. If for whatever reason they go through a period of losing games, looking hopeless and getting lambasted by the media, Durant has proven, at least to me, that he will quit. That's the one caveat.
I also wonder if perhaps they have too much firepower. Having Beal run the point with KD + Nurkic + Booker is sorta like overkill (unless they have injury issues, which is very likely). And then, if Gordon also starts, that's another scorer. They really need the right kind of PG to run this show, with all of this offensive talent. Like imagine Steve Nash surrounded by these dudes.
YUTA WATANABE - did pretty good with the Nets
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
The Warriors have an organization that knows itself. By going out and getting Chris Paul, obviously this team isn't trying to win with defense. And the good thing about having CP3, based on the small preseason sample that I've seen, is that he's actually patient with the ball. He can hold onto it until one of the shooters gets open. And whereas that may not be the best overall strategy in the NBA these days, it can be when you're playing with the Splash Bros., and it will also free up Draymond to focus more downlow than at the top as a playmaker.
I do genuinely believe that the powers that be wanted the Lakers to advance during last season's playoffs. The Kings were finally supposed to young team to dethrone the Dubs, then Curry started doing that shit again. And besides some of us suffering from 'Steph fatigue', last season was also supposed to be about Lebron. So it's like, primarily because of Steph tbh, you can never sleep on the Warriors.
GSW has a decent roster, but one in which if any of the top 9 guys is injured during the playoffs could spell disaster. And now, in a strange sorta way, people are putting the onus on Jonathan Kuminga, which isn't fair, all things considered. Me personally, if I were part of this braintrust I wouldn't have gone after a player like CP3. But obviously the Splash Bros. + Draymond want to play with him, which says a lot.
DARIO SARIC - may end up being the ex-factor
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Dame making his way over to the Bucks is considered by many to have been the biggest move of the offseason. At first, I wasn't overly enthused since Milwaukee lost Jrue Holiday in the process. But since then they picked up Cameron Payne, who I think will prove to be an x-factor.
The reason I ranked the Bucks over the Nuggets, even though they similar levels of recent success/continuity, is because Milwaukee is deeper and has a better set of defenders.
DAMIAN LILLARD - bad karma entering the season?
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
The Sixers are, once again, talented enough to make it to the Finals. I believe this is true even without Harden and even if no other player(s) joins their roster in his stead. If the Beard has decided not to suit up for Philly and/or they've decided to play without him, then it wouldn't make sense not to haste into a trade, not until they see the type of players they may need back in return (for instance, now that Montrezl Harris has been injured). But since he's only expressed a willingness to play for one other team, then it's like their hands are kinda tied. And for the record, my stance is that if Harden is willing to play for the Sixers, until they trade him or whatever, then they should let him.
TYRESE MAXEY - w/o Harden or Simmons should finally make allstar
DENVER NUGGETS
The reigning champs still have a relatively deep squad, but my prediction is that losing Bruce Brown is going to hurt. The Nets made that same mistake a couple of seasons ago. I know that there's politics and money and personalities and all types of shit involved, but when someone helps you win a championship like that, you don't let them go.
So now, it's like the onus is on Porter Jr. more than ever, like he's the obvious x-factor. A couple of years ago I predicted, if healthy, that he would be in the MVP conversation, but I don't feel that way anymore. However, it does feel like he was incepted during the Finals, as dude finally started playing inside instead of settling for threes. Meanwhile, the team's GM just basically dissed his offense. So hopefully, that would be further inspiration for Michael to exert himself, and here's me keeping my fingers crossed that he doesn't get hurt in the process.
CHRISTIAN BRAUN - obviously set to get a lot more playing time
JUSTIN HOLIDAY - a notable pickup, tho bit of a logjam at his position
TIER 2 - THE POTENTIAL IS THERE, BUT...
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Out of all of the quote/unquote young teams in the NBA, the Grizzlies clearly have the best roster. They lost a number of quality players over the past couple of seasons, but still, their squad now looks better then it's ever been (though since writing this, they lost Steven Adams for the season).
So now comes the task of dealing with the image/maturity issues. None of us wants to see Ja Morant get in trouble for doing something that's legal - what we do want, rather, is to see him on the court. So you know, he has a decision to make. And even though in the past the Griz arguably played better without him, it's hard to imagine this current iteration truly competing for a championship without his contribution.
DERRICK ROSE - the homeys need to treat him a little better
MARCUS SMART - one of the best acquisitions of the postseason
BOSTON CELTICS
All transactions considered, I'm not overly excited about the acquisition of Jrue Holiday. He's an exceptional traditional PG, though now on a roster that doesn't really need one, and my biggest concern is whether or not Jrue will get enough touches. In other words, true PGs like himself are most useful to teams that don't chuck. Meanwhile, Tatum shoots anytime he feels like it, and the Celtics' second superstar, Jaylen Brown, behaves the same sometimes. Also, whereas Porzingis and Horford are both above-average, versatile bigs, neither is necessarily dominant or imposing.
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
At the start of every season, for what feels like time immemorial now, you look at the Clippers roster and be like 'yeah, this may be the year', even though in the back of your mind you know it isn't. And so it is, once again, with 2023-24.
My belief is that, for a number of reasons, Kawhi Leonard has fallen out of favor with the NBA, and the situation is beyond rehabilitation, unless maybe he finds himself on a roster where he's no longer the biggest name. Another suggestion is perhaps he finds his way back to the Spurs.
In any event, this roster may not be the most compatible, and still, the Clippers lack size. But they have a number of quality pieces to play around with (or trade) and are clearly, on paper, contenders. Kawhi + George + Westbrook is the best G core in the league. So the Clips are contenders. But does that mean I expect them to actually make it to big dance? Due to behind-the-scenes' factors no, I don't, nor even anywhere close considering the last couple of seasons.
MIAMI HEAT
The Heat lost a couple of quality role players this offseason and, on the other side of the coin, didn't really make any powermoves, unless you consider acquiring Thomas Bryant one. But this is the most overachieving team in the league and clearly one that the NBA itself favors. They also, in theory, have enough talent to win a championship. As for compatibility, not so much, but you have to believe that if any braintrust can make this roster work, it's Miami's.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
The way the Cavs fizzled out of the playoffs last season left a real bad taste in my mouth, the kind of which has me convinced that this iteration doesn't have the favor of the powers that be. Remember that, about a decade ago, Cleveland got three number one picks within the timespan of just four years, thus indicating that the league favored them. But it definitely doesn't feel like that these days. It's like, if only Lebron would return (again), but at this point that seems out of the question.
That said, in this day and age when the NBA is flooded with questionable talent, they still have the benefit of having one of the deepest rosters in the league.
OKC THUNDER
The Thunder are not only young but also overachievers who are now, finally, about to field a healthy Chet Holmgren. The one issue I perceive though is that they could also use more of a traditional big, i.e. one dedicated solely to rebounding and interior defense. They're not contenders but can possibly beat most teams in a seven-game series.
UTAH JAZZ
Last season the Jazz overachieved, but then it appeared they gave up about midway through in the name of scoring better draft position. This offseason they've added John Collins, a player who, though a scapegoat of the Hawks, I haven't read any pundit say that joining Utah was a bad idea. They also drafted this dude Keyonte George who, though I never heard of him, is an Ainge pick and therefore probably better than his draft position implies. And on top of all of that, the team is young. They're almost like the Grizzlies, albeit with less overall talent but more stability. So if the Jazz really assert themselves throughout, stay healthy and play smart basketball, it's like who knows what they can achieve.
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
This season begins just as the last one, with the Pelicans, in theory, fielding a roster that's good enough to win a championship. But two variables remain at the top of the list in terms of realizing the dream. First, of course, is the health of Zion Williamson. And second, imo at least, is his compatibility with Brandon Ingram.
The latter question still has yet to be resolved because, due to injury, they haven't spent that much time on court together. On one hand, I advocate trading Ingram, even though, as evident by the recent dilemmas of the Beard and Kelly Oubre, the NBA may be once again trending away from these types of volume scorers. The team is clearly better, at least imo, with Zion and without Brandon. But then, what if like Williamson trips over a game controller or some shit? Then, you're going to need Ingram.
So once again, the Pelicans are sorta in an unenviable situation, being too rich for their good, so to speak. But at least they're must-watch, especially when Zion is playing.
JOSE ALVERADO - still one of my favs, though overly-emotional sometimes
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
At the beginning of last year I predicted the T-wolves to win it all, kinda like I'm doing with the Suns this time around, i.e. despite the fact that, despite being a superteam and all, lacked compatibility and continuity. But I'm not about to make that same mistake twice, at least not with Minnesota.
In theory the talent is already here, and, even if not, they have KAT, one of the most-attractive potential trade chip entering this season. Indeed, from what I've read, the ever-interfering Knicks are already lurking. But taking that this roster does remain intact, there's a couple of things that just don't feel right.
I like Anthony Edwards just as much as the next fan, and to my recollection I was the first pundit to predict, at the conclusion of the 2022 season, that he would be an allstar in 2023. But I wouldn't actually go as far as to say he's better than KAT or even Gobert per se, which then begs the question of why he's currently being promoted as such?
If you decide to unanimously give the keys to a G, he has to be really, really good, like Steph Curry, Michael Jordan, Kawhi Leonard type good. But who knows? Maybe Edwards is on his way there, but I just can't see it.
That said, this is a deep and long team. So you know, sky's the limit type shit, though I don't particularly think the powers that be favor them, at least not in this current iteration.
TORONTO RAPTORS
The Raptors have the talent and also an underrated braintrust. Dennis Schroder, on the low, is a stud (and I believe will be a better fit than VanVleet), and now Siakim and co. are going to get a full season alongside Jakob Poeltl, a player who, at least in theory, could solve their size problem. But it didn't necessarily look that way at the conclusion of last season. So it's possible that Toronto may once again end up bigman shopping or going small. In other words, they strike me as a team that still has yet to figure out how exactly they intend to get back to the next level.
TIER 3 - JUST NOT ENOUGH
SACRAMENTO KINGS
For a team that, based on last season's playoffs, were poised to be the next big thing, the Kings did practically jackshit in terms of upgrading their roster this past summer. They're obviously banking on running it back, which isn't the worst strategy, except that they still haven't solved their size problem, unless they're looking to JaVale McGee for the answer.
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
I'm really impressed how, in the blink of an eye, the Blazers have come to epitome what a balance of young talent coupled with a quality veteran presence is supposed to look like. The two reasons I think the Blazers may not get that far though is because first of all, since they're starting a rookie at point, they're obviously looking to the future. And second, with the Lillard trade etc., their continuity has pretty much been thrown out the window. But I take back what I said a couple of weeks ago about losing interest in the Blazers post-Dame, as this is definitely a team I want to see play, especially if they're winning.
ROBERT WILLIAMS III - at least he's already sorta used to coming off the bench
BROOKLYN NETS
The big news this offseason with the Nets was supposed to be Ben Simmons regaining his all-star form or whatever. In theory, a roster with both him and Mikal Bridges should have the best perimeter defense in the league, which could mean a whole lot in today's NBA. But then it's like, where is the offense going to come from? Are they finally going to take the reins off of Cam Thomas? I've been saying for a couple of years now that there's a lot of teams that could use a pass-first PG of Simmons' quality, but this current iteration of the Nets isn't one of them.
CAM THOMAS - one of the best scorers in the NBA, even if he gets no love
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
The argument isn't whether or not LBJ should be running point anymore. Now, the it's more like, considering his advanced age and minimal commitment to defense, since he can run the point, that's like the only place to slot him. And finally, at the conclusion of last season, the Lakers had constructed a roster with the type of players that could make that scheme work.
But instead, they've given up on Lonnie Walker IV and extended D'Angelo Russell, obviously in the name of staring him (or Gabe Vincent) at the point and Lebron at the 4. They also gave AD a much richer contract than his current health and output deserve.
Those are the signs of an organization that doesn't really know what TF it's doing. Theirs isn't the worst roster, but, in a strange sorta way, it's like the way it's currently constructed, King James, of all players, is the odd man out. This is the curse of Lebron, i.e. being an aged GOAT stuck on a team you can't even solidly predict will make the playoffs. So what I'm looking forward to is LAL once again depending on the goodwill of the NBA to get them ahead.
AUSTIN REAVES - best player on this team?
DALLAS MAVERICKS
At first, I strongly disagreed with the pairing of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. But now that I think about, it's probably for the best considering that either one of them - and especially Doncic - can be hurt at any given time.
Luka is arguably the best offensive player in the NBA. He's the Mavs greatest asset but also their greatest liability, since his health is unpredictable. And now that the NBA has passed that rule that players must participate in at least 65 games to be considered for a preseason award, he may never win MVP, as I presumed he would eventually. Well, at least it appears that finally Dallas's braintrust is growing a bit wiser and not focusing solely on guards and wings.
SETH CURRY - a good pickup
GRANT WILLIAMS - another good pickup
NEW YORK KNICKS
This is starting to feel like the old, don't-know-WTF-they're-doing Knicks again. When your organization's biggest news of the offseason is signing Donte DiVincenzo, unless the roster was already contenders, which NYK's isn't, then it's almost like you didn't really do anything at all.
EVAN FOURNIER - might as well trade dude already
IMMANUEL QUICKLEY - already at his ceiling, hope he isn't overworked
HOUSTON ROCKETS
At first, I didn't agree with the acquisition of Fred VanVleet. Those young guys from last season didn't win a lot of games, but at least they were entertaining night in and night out, which is something that most NBA teams can't boast of.
But now, with Kevin Porter Jr. no longer around, as well as Kenyon Martin Jr. bouncing, it's as if in the blink of an eye, the Rockets went from a youth movement to a balanced team age-wise. But unless Jabari Smith Jr. suddenly develops into an all-star, they aren't likely to make that much noise.
TIER 4 - DOES ANYONE TRULY CARE?
ATLANTA HAWKS
The Hawks were arguably the most-disappointing team of last season, and since then, on paper, they haven't particularly gotten better. Patty Mills is a notable addition, if Murray were to move to the bench or perhaps more reasonably to the 3. Saddiq Bey also looks like a cool name to add to this roster, but it isn't like he's an hands down upgrade over John Collins. The real problem with the squad, lingering from last season, is unfortunately compatibility issues. So I guess if they flunk again then it's rebuild time, which would be a shame considering just how much potential ATL appeared to have at this time last year.
CHICAGO BULLS
Putting the Bulls this far down on the list isn't meant to imply that they're going to be garbage per se. For all we know, they may even make the playoffs, since this is more or less the same roster that did so in 2022. But that's the problem, that they haven't made any progress since. It's the same core of DeRozan + LaVine + Vucevic surrounded by a bunch of guys who, either due to injury (i.e. Caruso) or inconsistency you can't count on to show up regularly. And you know, being insignificant is cool when your team is fun to watch, but that isn't really the case with the Bulls.
LONZO BALL - might as well retire and move on with his life
INDIANA PACERS
No disrespect, but I think this past summer's basketball world cup or whatever it was called proved what I've been saying all along, that Tyrese Haliburton is a bit overrated. Meanwhile, Myles Turner is still lingering around, as is Buddy Hield. It's hard to get excited about a team when you know that two of its biggest names don't really want to be there, and that it's one all-star probably achieved that status through circumstantial factors. Obi Toppin looks like a quality pickup, and they also scored one of my personal favorites, Bruce Brown. So who knows, maybe the Pacers will make the playoffs. But it's like, does anyone truly care, or more importantly, can they make the NBA world care?
ORLANDO MAGIC
Like the Pacers, it's possible that the Magic can make thee playoffs. Banchero was sorta exposed in the world championships, but he's still like a perfect bigman for today's NBA. I also still believe in Markelle, and there's a couple of other players on this squad that can show out.
The problem with the Magic, unlike some other young teams, is that they aren't really that popular, i.e. you never hear of like a high-value free agent deciding to sign with Orlando. Therefore they have to do things organically, which makes, say, the injuries to Jonathan Isaac really suck.
TIER 5 - SCRAPING THE BOTTOM
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Anyone who's been reading this blog knows that I've been big on Jordan Poole for a couple of seasons now. I even once declared him 'the 3rd Splash Brother', but obviously Steph and them didn't feel the same, and he became the scapegoat of the Warriors.
Now the reins have been taken off, and let me say that I'm solidly expecting Poole to become an allstar. I don't know if that will translate into a lot of wins, but, given that this is the Washington Wizards, probably not.
KYLE KUZMA - the forgotten borderline allstar
DANILO GALLINARI - will he actually play?
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
I've already said a couple of times that even as a rookie, Victor Wembanyama, under Greg Popovich, will be in the MVP conversation. I'd like to now modify that prediction by stating that such is likely if the Spurs actually make the playoffs, which isn't impossible but at the same time probably not likely given their current roster (as compared to others). This is one of those times when you say to yourself 'hey, what if they would've held on to Dejounte Murray' or, you know, had at least one other player on the roster who's already allstar worthy? But at least, for the first time in like 10 years, the Spurs are must watch.
CEDI OSMAN - an underrated pickup
DETROIT PISTONS
The Pistons have an admirable mix of young talent and veterans, but something just isn't right. It may be that they put their faith in Cade Cunningham, a player who I questioned since like his first or second month in the NBA.
Cade obviously has potential, but whether he has the health and drive are another thing. That's why, as an NBA braintrust, you're never supposed to be get caught up in the hype. If I were running this team, I'd already be looking at trading Cunningham, while he still has a relatively high value.
That said, no disrespect to anyone, but the Pistons have a number of young underachievers. So they may also consider giving up the youth game and focusing more or vets, like flipping two or three (or four) youngsters for an older superstar.
JOE HARRIS - fuk he end up here?
CHARLOTTE HORNETS
Of the three players the Hornets are most banking on, one (Ball) is regularly injured, another (Bridges) is in legal trouble and the third (Miller) may be on his way there. It's as if this Hornets are the Grizzlies of the East, though sans the winning culture. Hard to believe that all of this, in a way, is the making of Michael Jordan. Hopefully, he won't have any to do with the NBA on that level ever again.
