Yes, I may be a basketball guru. But I also realize that some of the biggest predictions I made at the beginning of this season haven't and aren't going to come to pass. But who knows? Around this time last season, the Warriors were almost looked like they were washed. Then a number of events which may have seemed like misfortunes at first - such as Klay's injury and relying on bench players for long stretches - proved to their advantage. So there's some teams, like the Hawks, that I still wouldn't completely count out. So instead of reinventing the wheel I'm going to use the same tier format that I did last time. And also, even for teams that have severely underperformed, like the Timberwolves (or vice versa), instead of moving them down up or down two or three tiers I'll just make it one because hey, I still haven't really accepted that my predictions.
TIER 1 - CONTENDERS
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Giannis has been looking increasingly mortal, i.e. injurable, of late. But the Bucks are a team of intelligent players backed by an intelligent braintrust that doesn't lust after superstars but rather pursues compatible team players. Also they have a good mainstream image, which is something that matters to the NBA. Then on top of that they have a stable roster, i.e. one that isn't being flipped every season or two. So there's no reason that, if Giannis is healthy, they can't win a second championship under him, though Middleton's health is something to also keep in mind.
JAE CROWDER - a sound addition for this team, of course
PHOENIX SUNS
Usually I wouldn't predict that a newly-formed superteam could win the championship. I did sorta recently with the Suns but am now backpedaling a step. My main cause of concern is wondering how hard KD will play off the ball, i.e. at times when Booker is chuckin instead of himself. Second is that he only has a little longer than a month to get to know his new team (and vice versa) before the Playoffs. And third is that out of all the contenders on this list, Phoenix now has arguably the weakest bench.
DARIO SARIC - whatever happened to this dude?
BOSTON CELTICS
I don't particularly believe that the Celtics are more talented than the Cavs. What I do acknowledge though is that they currently have the strongest sense of continuity of any team in the NBA. Also, they play hard D (sometimes). So that's why, if healthy, I'll give them the advantage over Cleveland.
MARCUS SMART - haven't heard from him in a minute
JAYSON TATUM - arguably the best in the NBA sometimes
DERRICK WHITE - the X-factor?
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Unlike every other contender in the East, if you take away Philly's star player, Embiid, they're arguably just as formidable, even over an entire series. But if they go up against the Celtics especially in the playoffs, I think they're going to regret giving up Thybulle, even if wasn't getting minutes.
JAMES HARDEN - deserves applause for effectively modifying his game
TYRESE MAXEY - one of the humblest stars in the NBA
DENVER NUGGETS
The Nuggets are finally healthy(?) and now appear more formidable than they ever have during the Jokic era(?). They also now have one of the deepest rosters in the NBA. But it remains to be seen if that will translate into playoff success. Fukaround and they have to go up against a healthy Dubs team or an inspired Lebron + AD in the First Round. But at least now they look ready (sorta), and there isn't any reason besides bad health that they shouldn't be able to win a championship, which is something I've been predicting for like the last three seasons anyway.
REGGIE JACKSON - glad he didn't end up on a garbage team
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
I haven't watched much of the Cavs of late. But just like I thought, they're in a position to win a championship. And since they're so young, they're also in the position to become a dynasty.
KEVIN LOVE - too bad he became expendable
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
The Clippers haven't looked like contenders, but at least they haven't entirely disappointed either. I don't know why they shuffle through guards so much, but Westbrook was a major addition, since he's actually the best all-around G in the league. Getting Mason Plumlee was huge also, as now the Clips have a little bit of depth at the 5, which was really what they needed most.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
I had to fight with myself before re-listing the Grizzlies as contenders. It's obvious they have the talent, with theirs also being better balanced than perhaps any other team (for instance, they just bust the Nuggets asses a couple of days ago). But I strongly believe that these days, the NBA doesn't want a team with a thuggish image winning it all. So all of this shit that Brooks and Morant has been getting into of late really isn't helping.
DESMOND BANE - made me eat my words, can possibly be an all-star soon
TORONTO RAPTORS
The Raptors have dealt with championship success, albeit led by the most transient superstar in the NBA, and then afterwards regularly being under pressure to trade their stars or rebuild. Instead they have remained committed and, in my opinion, are sleeper contenders now that they got Jakob Poeltl. I believe this team would get a lot more respect if they were actually in the United States.
JAKOB POELTL - after KD, the most needle-moving acquisition of the trade deadline
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Even though the Warriors are in a slump or I decided to keep them as contenders, because they have the Splash Bros. and a good image with the NBA. But going out and bringing back the Gauntlet feels like too little too late, and losing James Wiseman to get him back was, imo, downright stupid.
JORDAN POOLE - deserves more respect, from like everybody
TIER 2 - BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR
NEW YORK KNICKS
Within the blink of an eye, the Knicks went from having arguably the dumbest braintrust in the NBA to now making shrewd moves like unexpectedly acquiring Josh Hart, who's actually one of the best forwards out there. This all started with the acquisition of Jalen Brunson (who honestly has exceeded my expectations) and before that Julius Randle. No more starchasing and all that backwards shit. Now the Knicks are deep, settled and focused, and I believe, under certain circumstances, can even take the East.
JALEN BRUNSON - not as flashy as Kyrie, but...
RJ BARRETT - luckily is no longer under as much pressure to live up to his new contract
JULIUS RANDLE - has been incepted to remember that he is a dominant player
MIAMI HEAT
Last season was like the Heat's to lose, and lose they did. This team is still one of the most talented but also sports a couple of aged star and what feels like a ever-shifting starting lineup. Miami is always competitive, but sometimes the championship window only opens for a season at a time.
BAM ADEBAYO - might as well make him the starting PG come next season
KYLE LOWRY - 'fat' NBA players don't necessarily age well
SACRAMENTO KINGS
Anyone who's been reading this blog know that I've always been big on Domantas Sabonis, way before anyone else got around to acknowledging how good he is. In fact he and Arvydas mark the best father-son players the NBA has ever seen. And I'd be lying if I said I expected the Kings, the organization I tend to diss the most (after the Knicks), to suddenly be this good. Like I know the West is now weaker, but 3rd in the conference? But one of main reasons I don't want to get over-excited is because I don't think they're popular (nor deep) enough to win a championship at the moment.
HARRISON BARNES - on the low, prolly the best glue guy in the NBA (after Draymond)
DAVION MITCHELL - prolly needs to go a team where he'll get more run
WASHINGTON WIZARDS
The Wizards are perhaps the only team in the NBA with three players averaging over 20 points. So it's safe to say that they really are just one addition away from contendorship, and the reason they're floundering likely has a lot to do with the fact that this is indeed the Wizards, i.e. losing being the organization's culture.
ATLANTA HAWKS
This is one of the two teams I was tempted to move down an entire two tiers. I haven't watched the Hawks play enough to really know what their problem is. But the couple of times I did, as predicted Young and Murray didn't particularly play well off each other. And since Young very much deserves to run the point if he wants to, it may be that acquiring Dejounte was overkill for that position. Meanwhile, as usual the blame is falling on Jason Collins (and Nate "the Head" McMillan).
JASON COLLINS - the team scapegoat
TYRESE MARTIN - not to be confused with Tyrese Maxey
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
The Timberwolves, by this point, are just annoying to write about. The problem with this team for about a decade now is that no matter how much talent they have, they still find a way underperform. It may be a coaching thing, but sometimes it just feels like they're cursed or some shit, on top of not having the favor of the powers that be, despite having one of the dopest logos in sports.
KAT - might be time to move on
MIKE CONLEY - the type of PG this roster needs
TIER 3 - ONLY FATE KNOWS
INDIANA PACERS
The Pacers have exceeded everybody's expectations this year (even if they don't make the playoffs), and it says a lot that on top of them moving up a tier, I also placed them at the top of it. I still believe that Haliburton is overrated, but I'm not hatin. Indiana may never be the most popular team in the NBA, but at least now there's a greaters sense of hope surrounding this squad than even the Nets.
BROOKLYN NETS
I still believe in the Nets, though they now have a couple of notable issues. First is that being devoid of superstars, there's less incentive for the NBA powers that be to favor them. And second is that Jacque Vaughn (and the rest of the braintrust) was so used to dealing with superstars, divas even, that now he doesn't seem to know how to properly run a deep team of no stars.
MIKAL BRIDGES - will never be as popular as KD, but is better all-around
BEN SIMMONS - compelled Kyrie + KD to leave with his lackluster play
CAM THOMAS - they should've just let dude run free once he got hot
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
An argument can be made that no team has a deeper roster than the Pelicans. Unfortunately they're two biggest stars are always hurt and when they are both healthy don't particularly play well together.
JOSE ALVERADO - the rare player who actually brings joy to the game
CJ MCCOLLUM - should've made the all-star team just out of respect
ZION WILLIAMSON - needs to play for a league with fewer games
UTAH JAZZ
I haven't really heard of Utah since around the trade deadline. They have slid from being the surprisingly-hottest team early in the season to now fighting for a playoff spot, maybe. If I was Danny Ainge and them, I would have kept Westbrook unless he didn't want to be there. But this is a team so focused on the future that winning now doesn't particularly seem to matter.
RUDY GAY - feels like he's been in the NBA longer than Lebron
LAURI MARKANNEN - hope they don't end up wasting his talent
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Damian Lillard is now proving, even at the age of 32, that he really has been the second-best scoring PG after Steph Curry. I would also say that unlike Steph, his style is such that you can rationalize building a team around him, like they did Allen Iverson or Michael Jordan. But unfortunately, by this point his health isn't.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
At first I wasn't feeling the Westbrook trade but can now admit that depth - for whatever it's worth in this case - does matter. I also believe that, if Lebron is playable, the NBA definitely wants the Lakers in the playoffs and will do what they have to in order to get them there. But then ask yourself this - if he isn't healthy, would you even be interested in watching them play? That's how problematic the great Lakers have become.
ANTHONY DAVIS - would probably be more vested if LBJ wasn't around
DENNIS SCHRODER - one of the most exciting players when he's hot
CHICAGO BULLS
Damn, what on earth happened to the Bulls? They were one of the most promising teams coming into the season but are now playing like the post-Jordan years or some shit. And some people on this squad, I won't say any names but have always been suspect in my eyes in terms of being considered an all-star.
LONZO BALL - needs to play in a league with a lot fewer games
PATRICK BEVERLY - a viable short-term replacement for Lonzo Ball
ORLANDO MAGIC
Throughout its short history, the Orlando Magic have proven that they can build contenders around #1 draft picks. The thing is tho Banchero, as good as he may be, isn't as dominant as Shaq or Howard. It remains to be seen what happens, as this roster isn't as bad as it looks sometimes. But it does appear that the Magic are going to have to do it the hard way, via the draft.
MO BAMBA - not quite sure why they traded him
JONATHAN ISAAC - too bad injuries derailed dude
TIER 4 - THE LUCK OF THE DRAW
DALLAS MAVERICKS
I've been saying for years now that the Mavs need to strengthen their frontcourt, like at the 5 type shit. And instead, they went out and got a superstar PG to put alongside the one they already have, smh. Is Luka + Kyrie a fun watch anyway?
JAVALE MCGEE - may finally need to retire
DWIGHT POWELL - the bravest player in the NBA
OKC THUNDER
One thing I like about OKC is that even though no one expected them to do well this season, and they remained more or less true to that prediction, still, the Thunder don't feel like a tanking team. So when Chet Holgrem and/or whoever else shows up next season, they're going to be joining a squad with pride, which is arguably more important to long-term success than high draft picks.
HOUSTON ROCKETS
I haven't seen a lot of NBA this season, but the few times I did make an effort my favorite team to watch has been the Rockets, even though they always lose. So part of me is hoping that the Beard doesn't return, as this team already has more than enough chucks. But now that he's gotten older and wiser, maybe that'll be exactly what the doctor ordered.
JABARI SMITH JR. - shoots too many threes for his size
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
There's no team it pains me to witness suck more than the Spurs, because their downfall wasn't due to the braintrust fukin up but rather their marquee player forcing himself out. But enough of me crying over spilt milk . Now, my hope is that they'll get Wembanyama and turn him into like the next Tim Duncan.
GREGG POPOVICH - might as well retire(?)
DETROIT PISTONS
The Pistons have disappointed just about everyone, including me as far as certain predictions are concerned, but I was right in two regards. One is that they look mighty stupid having gotten rid of Kemba Walker, the only payer on that roster who had a history of like leading teams to victory. And second, Cade Cunningham is talented. But giving him the keys to the franchise has thus far proven more frustrating than even the Pelicans doing so with Zion.
BOJAN BOGDANOVIC - the biggest roster anomaly in the NBA
JADEN IVEY - has a lot of heart for a rookie, but he isn't the type that can lead a franchise
JAMES WISEMAN - entered the NBA too young
CHARLOTTE HORNETS
The Ball boys can ball, but it looks like their bodies can't withstand the rigors of the NBA year in and year out. And when you combine that with the unfortunate story which is that of Miles Bridges, on top of Charlotte some years back wrongfully regarding Gordon Hayward as a still-viable star, what you get is the team with the least promising future in the NBA - unless maybe the luck draws in their favor.
LAMELO BALL - should play for a league with fewer games
TERRY ROZIER - Boston should have shown him his proper love
CONCLUSION
I guess one of the subthemes of this article is that there's a lot of significant injuries going around the NBA. Creating a league with a shorter season just for injury-prone players or like moving Zion down to the D-League is likely out of the question. So maybe in the future, we'll see a different type of contract whereas, say, a player is only stipulated to suit up for half of the games, since so many of them are already doing so anyway. And that way, maybe teams will have enough flexibility to get other players to cover that lost time.
No comments:
Post a Comment